McDaniels (if you remove the height qualifier, you add all kinds of fun names like Tony Wroten, Isaiah Whitehead, Josh Okogie, Diamond Stone, Dejounte Murray and Yogi Ferrell) ![]() Brandon Clarke: No statistical comparisons (he has the second-highest box plus-minus on record).Jarrett Culver: If you take away the class qualification, you get Kris Dunn.Ja Morant: Dion Waiters (major difference here is that Morant's assist percentage is a whopping 30 points higher).Zion Williamson: No statistical comparisons.If we do the same exercise for the top 10 NCAA players on Tankathon's Big Board, this is what we get: Freshman Barnes was the closest to Barrett's usage, and even he was almost six points behind there. Barrett as the example here.Īs a freshman for Duke, Barrett was listed at 6'7", posted a 5.3 offensive box plus-minus, posted a 2.4 defensive box plus-minus and had a 32.2 usage percentage. The only NBA players who are within two inches of Barrett's height and were within 0.5 points of his offensive and defensive box plus-minuses as freshmen in college: Harrison Barnes, Justin Jackson, Vincent Edwards and Josh Hart. He barely missed the cut with a 9.9 box plus-minus, but we'll have more on him later.Īnother way to look at a prospect's potential is to find a statistical profile that is close to his. We may as well add Ja Morant to this list as well. NCAA basketball almost presents a different sport than the NBA, so college numbers aren't necessarily indicative of how a player's pro career will turn out. Despite his placement in the project below, his name will likely be called in the top 10 of this year's draft. He has the physical tools to succeed, but his numbers as a freshman were underwhelming. ![]() The same may apply to a prospect like Duke's Cam Reddish. If a rookie passes the eye test but posts a below-average box plus-minus, it's probably fine to trust the eye test. But the application of so-called "analytics" to young players, especially NBA Draft prospects, remains tentative. (Photo by Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Gettyīasketball analysis has drastically changed in the age of information. Men's championship - elite eight game between Duke and Michigan State, on March 31, 2019, at Capital One Arena, in Washington D.C. He declared for the 2019 NBA Draft following his lone season at Duke.WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 31: Duke Blue Devils forward Zion Williamson (1) warming up before a Div 1. The team lost in the Elite Eight in the NCAA tournament to the Michigan State Spartans. ![]() Williamson was named the ACC Tournament MVP. The tournament run included 31 points against rival North-Carolina in a one-point semifinal victory. He missed the rest of the team’s regular-season games but returned to help Duke capture the ACC Tournament championship. Zion infamously sprained his knee when his foot ripped through his Nike shoe. He had many more high-scoring games, including scoring 25 points in 22 minutes against Clemson and a 35-point, 10-rebound game against Syracuse which set a new record for points in a game by a Duke freshman. In his first game, he broke Duke’s record for scoring by a freshman on his debut, with 28 points. With RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish, the Blue Devils had one of the most talented recruiting classes in NBA history. Williamson played only one season of college basketball with the Duke Blue Devils under Mike Krzyzewski.
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